Fed Logan Speech

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

ECB Cipollone Speech

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate.

New Car Registrations MoM

2.3%

In Brazil, New Vehicle Registrations refers to total registration of new vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks and buses.

Car Production MoM

-1.1%

In Brazil, car production measures the total number of manufactured cars including passenger cars, trucks and buses in the reference month.

Redbook YoY

10.4%

The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month.

Real Earnings MoM

-0.5%

US Real Average Hourly Earnings measure the inflation-adjusted hourly pay of workers, calculated by taking average hourly earnings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and converting them into constant dollars. The adjustment for inflation is done using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), produced by the Consumer Price Indexes Program. This deflation process shows how workers’ earnings change in terms of actual purchasing power rather than just nominal dollar amounts.

Inflation Rate MoM

0.6%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

CPI s.a

336.3

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index or CPI measures changes in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.

CPI

336.94

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index or CPI measures changes in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.

Core Inflation Rate MoM

0.3%

Inflation Rate YoY

3.7%

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: Food (14% of total weight); Energy (8%); Commodities Less Food & Energy Commodities (21%) and Services Less Energy Services (57%). The last category is divided by: Shelter (32%), Medical Care Services (7%) and Transportation Services (6%).

Core Inflation Rate YoY

2.6%

In the United States, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes volatile food and fuel costs.

ADP Employment Change Weekly

16750

The preliminary estimate of the ADP National Employment Report reflects weekly changes in private employment and includes a four-week moving average of total private employment variation.

BoE Lombardelli Speech

In the United Kingdom, benchmark interest rate is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank of England official interest rate is the repo rate. This repo rate applies to open market operations of the Bank of England with a group of counterparties (banks, building societies, securities firms).

9-Month RFTB Auction

3.03%

6-Month RFTB Auction

2.87%

Manufacturing Production YoY

-4.1%

In South Africa, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in the manufacturing sector of the economy.

Manufacturing Production MoM

-3%

In South Africa, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in the manufacturing sector of the economy.

NFIB Business Optimism Index

97.9

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 NFIB members. This questions include: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

In Brazil, interest rate decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). The official interest rate is the Special System of Clearance and Custody rate (SELIC) which is the overnight lending rate.

Long TC Auction

3.167%

Short TC Auction

2.69%

3-Month DTB Auction

5.16%

307-Day T-Bill Auction

2.4077%

97-Day T-Bill Auction

1.9935%

Consumer Confidence

84.1

In Spain, the Consumer Confidence survey is made by phone and covers 1,000 individuals aged over 16 who are representative of Spanish society as a whole. The questionnaire focuses on current economic and financial situation, savings intention as well as on expected developments regarding general and personal economic situation and major purchases of durable goods. The index shows the difference between the percentage share of persons that are optimistic and the percentage of persons that are pessimistic. The index measures consumer confidence on a scale of 0 to 200, where 0 indicates extreme lack of confidence, 100 neutrality and 200 extreme confidence.

Industrial Production YoY

6.3%

In Greece, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY

5.1%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB). The HICP is compiled by Eurostat and the national statistical institutes in accordance with harmonised statistical methods. The ECB aims to maintain annual inflation rates as measured by the HICP below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Inflation Rate MoM

2.1%

In Greece, the most important categories in the consumer price index are: food and non-alcoholic beverages (17 percent of total weight); transport (13 percent); housing (12 percent) and hotels, cafés and restaurants (11 percent). The index also includes: clothing and footwear (9 percent); health (7 percent); furnishing and household equipment (7 percent); recreation and culture (5 percent); communication (5 percent). Education, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and other goods and services account for the remaining 14 percent of total weight.

Inflation Rate YoY

5%

In Greece, the most important categories in the consumer price index are: food and non-alcoholic beverages (21 percent of total weight); housing (16 percent); and transport (14 percent). The index also includes: hotels, cafés and restaurants (10 percent); health (8 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (7 percent); and clothing and footwear (6 percent). Household equipment, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, communication, recreation and culture, and education account for the remaining 19 percent of total weight.

Treasury Gilt 2056 Auction

5.82%

9-Month Letras Auction

2.96%

3-Month Letras Auction

2.635%

2039 Bond Auction

8.911%

2042 Bond Auction

9.066%

2033 Bond Auction

8.35%

Unemployed Persons

8481000

In South Africa, unemployed persons are individuals who are without a job and actively seeking to work.

Unemployment Rate

33.6%

In South Africa, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Fed Waller Speech

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

In Sweden, benchmark interest rate is set by the Executive Board of the Central Bank of Sweden (The Riksbank). The main interest rate is the repo rate which is the rate of interest at which banks can borrow or deposit funds at the Riksbank for a period of seven days. The Riksbank's target is to hold inflation in terms of the CPIF (the CPI with a fixed interest rate) around 2 percent a year.

Early Close Bond Market

Industrial Production YoY

-0.2%

In Austria, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector (69 percent of total production) including: machinery and equipment (9 percent); basic metals (6 percent); food products (6 percent); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (6 percent); fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (6 percent); and electrical equipment (5 percent). Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply account for 15 percent of total output followed by construction (13 percent), water supply, sewerage and waste management (2 percent) and mining and quarrying (1 percent).

Inflation Rate MoM Final

0%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Inflation Rate YoY Final

2.5%

In Czech Republic, the most important category in the consumer price index is Housing and Utilities (27 percent of total weight). Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages accounts for 18 percent; Transport for 10 percent; Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco for 9 percent; Recreation and Culture for 8 percent and Miscellaneous Goods and Services for 6 percent. Furniture, Household Goods and Maintenance; Restaurants and Hotels; Clothing and Footwear; Communication; Health and Education account for the remaining 27 percent of total weight.

Core Inflation Rate YoY

1.9%

In Hungary, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes some volatile price items.

Inflation Rate YoY

1.6%

In Hungary, the most important category in the consumer price index is Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (23 percent of total weight). Transport accounts for 15 percent; Housing and Utilities for 12 percent; Alcoholic beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics for 9 percent; Recreation and Culture for 7 percent; Miscellaneous Goods and Services for 7 percent; and Furniture, Household Equipment and Maintenance for 7 percent. Health; Restaurants and Hotels; Communication; Clothing and Footwear; and Education account for the remaining 20 percent of total weight.

Inflation Rate MoM

0.2%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Industrial Production YoY

-1.7%

In Turkey, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 84 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: Food products (16 percent of total production); basic metals (11 percent); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (9 percent); textile (8 percent); other non-metallic mineral products (6 percent); rubber and plastic products (5 percent); chemicals and chemical products (5 percent); electrical equipment (5 percent); wearing apparel (5 percent); and fabricated metal products (5 percent).

Industrial Production MoM

-0.9%

In Turkey, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 84 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: Food products (16 percent of total production); basic metals (11 percent); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (9 percent); textile (8 percent); other non-metallic mineral products (6 percent); rubber and plastic products (5 percent); chemicals and chemical products (5 percent); electrical equipment (5 percent); wearing apparel (5 percent); and fabricated metal products (5 percent).

Construction Output YoY

4.8%

The production index in construction measures the evolution of output within the construction sector, including building construction and civil engineering.

New Orders YoY

3.8%

In Sweden, because new orders heavily affect business confidence they are a leading indicator for growth in gross domestic product. The statistics is sample- and register-based and aims to measure short-term changes in new orders and turnover in industry on a monthly basis, in total and by industry, as well as domestic and export market. The survey is coordinated with other economy-based surveys.

Industrial Production YoY

5.7%

In Sweden, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing and mining.

Industrial Production MoM

6%

In Sweden, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing and mining.

Inflation Rate MoM

0.5%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Core Inflation Rate YoY

3%

In Norway, the core inflation, which is adjusted for taxes and energy prices, is the measure used by the central bank in setting interest rates. It targets inflation at around 2 percent over the long term.

Core Inflation Rate MoM

0.2%

In Norway, the core inflation rate, which is adjusted for taxes and energy prices, is the measure used by the central bank in setting interest rates.

Inflation Rate YoY

3.4%

In Norway, the most important category in the Consumer Price Index is Housing & Utilities (24.62% of the total weight). Transport accounts for 14.97%, Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages for 12.86%, Recreation & Culture for 10.79%, and Miscellaneous Goods & Services for 8.72%. The index also includes: Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Maintenance (6.89%), Clothing & Footwear (5.09%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (4.2%), Health (3.39%), Communication (2.37%), and Education (0.49%).

Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY

2.1%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB). The HICP is compiled by Eurostat and the national statistical institutes in accordance with harmonised statistical methods. The ECB aims to maintain annual inflation rates as measured by the HICP below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Inflation Rate MoM

0%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Inflation Rate YoY

2.2%

In Denmark, the most important category in the consumer price index is Housing and Utilities (30 percent of total weight). Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages accounts for 13 percent; Transport for 12 percent; Recreation and Culture for 11 percent; Miscellaneous Goods and Services for 9 percent; and Furnishings and Household Services for 6 percent. Restaurants and Hotels; Clothing and Footwear; Alcoholic beverages and Tobacco; Health; Communication; and Education account for the remaining 20 percent of total weight.

Unemployment Rate

8.3%

In France, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Industrial Production YoY

1.3%

In Finland, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 87 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: chemicals (16 percent); electrical and electronics (13 percent); machinery and equipment (11 percent); paper and paper products (9 percent); fabricated metal products (8 percent); and food products (7 percent). Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply accounts for 11 percent of total output; and Mining and quarrying account for 2 percent.

Manufacturing Production MoM

3%

Inflation Rate YoY Final

3.4%

In Netherlands, the most important categories in the consumer price index are: housing, water, electricity and gas (24.5 percent of the total weight); transport (11.6 percent) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (11.3 percent). The index also includes: recreation and culture (10.3 percent); furnishing and household equipment (6 percent); clothing and footwear (4.9 percent); hotels and restaurants (4.2 percent); communication (3.3 percent) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.1 percent). Health, education and other goods and services account for the remaining 20.8 percent of total weight.

Inflation Rate MoM

0.1%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Eco Watchers Survey Current

47

The Economy Watchers Current Index measures the current mood of businesses that directly service consumers, such as barbers, taxi drivers, and waiters. The survey covers eleven regions across the country including Hokkaido, Tohoku, Northern Kanto, Southern Kanto, Tokai, Hokuriku, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, Kyushu, and Okinawa. There were 2,050 people selected among those engaged in jobs in industries. This enabled them to observe any developments that accurately reflect economic activities such as household activity, corporate activity, and employment. A reading above 50.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook

47.4

The Economy Watchers Survey Outlook measures the expected mood of businesses that directly service consumers, such as barbers, taxi drivers, and waiters. The survey covers eleven regions across the country including Hokkaido, Tohoku, Northern Kanto, Southern Kanto, Tokai, Hokuriku, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, Kyushu, and Okinawa. There were 2,050 people selected among those engaged in jobs in industries. This enabled them to observe any developments that accurately reflect economic activities such as household activity, corporate activity, and employment. A reading above 50.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.

30-Year JGB Auction

4.109%

Retail Sales YoY

1.3%

In Indonesia, the year-over-year change in Retail sales compares the aggregated sales of retail goods and services during a certain month to the same month a year ago.

Imports YoY

31%

Machinery and transport equipment dominate China’s import mix, accounting for about 38% of total inbound shipments. Key components within this category include electrical machinery and appliances (21%), road vehicles (4%), telecommunications and audio-visual equipment (3%), and office machines and data-processing equipment (3%). China also imports significant volumes of mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials (17%), driven largely by petroleum and petroleum products (13%) and natural and manufactured gas (3%). Crude, inedible materials excluding fuels make up 14% of imports, with metalliferous ores and metal scrap contributing 9%. Chemicals and related products represent 11% of total imports, led by organic chemicals (3%) and plastics in primary forms (3%). Additional import categories include miscellaneous manufactured articles (7%), manufactured goods classified chiefly by material (7%), and food and live animals (4%). The European Union is China’s largest source of imports, supplying 13% of the total, with Germany (5%) and France (2%) being major contributors. Other key import partners include South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan (each around 8%), followed by the United States and Australia (6% each). Brazil provides about 4%, while Malaysia, Vietnam, Russia, and Saudi Arabia each account for roughly 3%, and Thailand, Singapore, and Indonesia about 2% apiece.

Exports YoY

36.3%

Exports have long been a key driver of China’s rapid economic growth. In recent years, machinery and transport equipment have made up nearly half of all outbound shipments. Within this category, major contributors include electrical machinery and appliances (14%), telecommunications and audio-visual equipment (12%), office and data-processing machines (8%), and industrial machinery and machine parts (5%). Other important export groups include miscellaneous manufactured goods (23%); manufactured products classified by material (16%)—notably textile yarn, fabrics and related articles (5%), metal manufactures (4%), and iron and steel (2%); chemicals and related products (6%); and food and live animals (3%). The European Union and the United States remain China’s largest export markets, each accounting for more than 15% of total shipments. Other significant destinations include Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Germany, India, and the Netherlands (around 3% each).

Balance of Trade Yuan

905970000000

Since 1995, China has been recording consistent trade surpluses. Exports are dominated by machinery and transport equipment—especially electrical machinery, telecommunications devices, office machines, and industrial machinery—alongside manufactured goods, textiles, chemicals, and food products. The European Union and the United States are the largest destinations, supported by regional markets including Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Germany, India, and the Netherlands. Imports are driven by machinery, energy products, industrial raw materials, and chemicals, sourced mainly from the EU, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the US, and Australia. This mix of high-value exports and essential imports generally results in a persistent trade surplus, highlighting China’s role as a global manufacturing hub and a major consumer of raw materials.

Balance of Trade

133530000000

Since 1995, China has been recording consistent trade surpluses. Exports are dominated by machinery and transport equipment—especially electrical machinery, telecommunications devices, office machines, and industrial machinery—alongside manufactured goods, textiles, chemicals, and food products. The European Union and the United States are the largest destinations, supported by regional markets including Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Germany, India, and the Netherlands. Imports are driven by machinery, energy products, industrial raw materials, and chemicals, sourced mainly from the EU, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the US, and Australia. This mix of high-value exports and essential imports generally results in a persistent trade surplus, highlighting China’s role as a global manufacturing hub and a major consumer of raw materials.

1-Year Bill Auction

3.5075%

3-Month Bill Auction

2.958%

6-Month Bill Auction

3.1904%

Construction PMI

50.4

The AIB Ireland Construction PMI, compiled by S&P Global, is based on monthly survey responses from approximately 150 construction firms, selected to represent the industry by workforce size and GDP contribution. Conducted in the latter half of each month, the survey measures month-on-month changes across various construction metrics. Results are presented as diffusion indices, where a reading above 50 signals growth, below 50 indicates contraction, and 50 represents no change. The headline figure—the Total Activity Index—tracks overall construction output and is seasonally adjusted for comparability over time. Though sometimes referred to as the "Construction PMI," it differs from the headline manufacturing PMI.

NAB Business Confidence

-14

The NAB monthly survey of business confidence is based on a telephone survey of around 600 small, medium and large size non-agricultural companies. The Survey measures the expectations of business conditions for the upcoming month and is a simple average of trading, profitability and employment indices, reported by respondents for their company. The indices are calculated by taking the difference between the percentage of respondents nominating good or very good, or a rise and those nominating poor or very poor, or a fall.

BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY

1%

The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor measures changes in the actual value of retail sales from a sample of retailers. The Monitor measures the value of spending and hence does not adjust for price changes. If prices are rising, sales volumes will increase by less than sales values. In times of price deflation, sales volumes will increase by more than sales values. Retailers report the value of their sales and sales in the equivalent week a year ago. These figures are reported both in total and on a ‘like-for-like’ basis. The percentage increase in the value of sales on a ‘like-for-like’ basis removes the effect of the expansion of retail floor space by the retailers concerned on their sales total. Due to the sample being biased towards large retailers, the ‘like-for-like’ increase usually provides a more accurate guide to general spending patterns, though it will be biased downwards as an estimate of the growth rate for retail as a whole.

Bank Lending YoY

5.3%

In Japan, bank lending refers to the year-on-year change of all outstanding loans and discounts with banks and shinkin banks. Lending increases with increased business confidence and investment and it is an important indicator for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector.

Current Account

4062000000000

Current Account is the sum of the balance of trade (exports minus imports of goods and services), net factor income (such as interest and dividends) and net transfer payments (such as foreign aid).

BoJ Summary of Opinions

In Japan, interest rates are set by the Bank of Japan's Policy Board in its Monetary Policy Meetings. The BoJ's official interest rate is the discount rate. Monetary Policy Meetings produce a guideline for money market operations in inter-meeting periods and this guideline is written in terms of a target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate.

Household Spending MoM

0.1%

In Japan, Household Spending MoM refers to the monthly change of consumption expenditures (on food, housing, utilities, furniture, clothing, health, education, transport, communication, leisure activities, etc.) in real terms for two-or-more-person households including agricultural, forestry and fisheries households.

Household Spending YoY

-3.1%

In Japan, Household Spending YoY refers to the annual change of consumption expenditures (on food, housing, utilities, furniture, clothing, health, education, transport, communication, leisure activities, etc.) in real terms for two-or-more-person households including agricultural, forestry and fisheries households.

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index

80.4

The Consumer Sentiment Index is based on a survey of over 1,200 Australian households. The Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers' evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. The index scores above 100 indicate that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Westpac Consumer Confidence Change

-4.7%

The Consumer Sentiment Index is based on a survey of over 1,200 Australian households. The Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers' evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. The index scores above 100 indicate that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Fed Goolsbee Speech

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

3-Year Note Auction

4.932%

6-Week Bill Auction

3.94%

BoE Gov Bailey Speech

In the United Kingdom, benchmark interest rate is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank of England official interest rate is the repo rate. This repo rate applies to open market operations of the Bank of England with a group of counterparties (banks, building societies, securities firms).

Fed Barkin Speech

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

Fed Bowman Speech

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

10-Year Bond Auction

3.887%

Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government and is denominated in the country`s own currency. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid.

3-Month Bill Auction

4.04%

6-Month Bill Auction

4.15%

Consumer Inflation Expectations

3.9%

In the US, one-year inflation expectations represent the median expected inflation rate over the next 12 months, as measured by the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data are collected through a nationally representative, internet-based survey of roughly 1,300 rotating household heads, providing insight into short-term consumer inflation sentiment.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

3.4%

Atlanta Fed GDPNow is a real-time model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta that provides a “nowcast” of US real GDP growth for the current quarter before the official estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The model estimates 13 GDP subcomponents: personal consumption expenditures; private fixed investment; change in private inventories; exports; imports; federal government consumption and investment; and state and local government consumption and investment, with several categories further broken down into underlying components. GDPNow is updated as new economic data are released, typically six or seven times a month, and produces a data-driven estimate with no subjective adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve.